Assessment and forecasting of competitive potential integral indicator dynamics in domestic agricultural enterprises based on economic and mathematical approaches

Title:

Authors:

Hapon, Vadym
Kramar, Iryna

Affiliation:

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University Ruska St., 56, Ternopil 46001 Ukraine

Bibliographic reference (2015):

Hapon, V. & Kramar, I. Assessment and forecasting of competitive potential integral indicator dynamics in domestic agricultural enterprises based on economic and mathematical approaches. Socio-Economic Problems and the State (electronic journal), Vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 88-107. URL: http://sepd.tntu.edu.ua/images/stories/pdf/2025/25hvsama.pdf

Journal/Collection:

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State"

Issue:

2(33)

Issue Date:

Dec-2025

Submitted date:

Oct-2025

Date of entry:

1-Jan-2026

Publisher:

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University

Country (code):

Place of the edition/event:

Ternopil

ORCID Id:

https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7219-9338
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5768-988X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33108/sepd2025.02.088

UDC:

338.43:005.21:005.8

JEL:

Q13
Q14
C51
M21

Keywords:

competitive potential
agricultural enterprise
integral indicator
forecasting
logarithmic model
strategic management
risks
uncertainty
adaptability
efficiency
innovations

Number of pages:

Page range:

88-107

Start page:

End page:

107

Abstract:

Methodological approaches to assessing and forecasting agricultural enterprises’ competitive potential under conditions of military-economic instability, globalization challenges, and digital transformation are analyzed in the article. Competitive potential structural components are identified; a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators is developed to ensure a comprehensive analysis of the enterprise’s business efficiency. An algorithm for diagnosing competitive potential is proposed. It is based on the development of a standardized value matrix, the determination of a reference vector and calculation of the integral indicator using the taxonomic analysis method, which accounts for both stimulating and discouraging development factors. Based on empirical data from domestic agricultural enterprises, the integral indicator of competitive potential (Ki) is calculated, a comparative analysis of its dynamics for 2019–2024 is conducted, and a scale for interpreting development levels is developed. To forecast the level of competitive potential development, a logarithmic trend model was used, which allows to determine the trajectory of change until 2030 and assess the inertia of its development. It is proven that enterprises with a diversified production structure, effective use of resource potential and high innovative activity are characterized by stable growth of Ki and an increase in the level of competitiveness. The proposed economic and mathematical model based on the logarithmic trend allows to predict with sufficient accuracy the dynamics of the integral indicator of agricultural enterprises competitive potential. The results of forecasting the integral indicator Ki can serve as a basis for developing strategies to increase competitiveness, determine priority areas investment, improve resource provision and strategic management of agricultural enterprises.

Sponsorship:

The authors received no direct funding for this research.

URI:

http://elartu.tntu.edu.ua/handle/lib/50831

ISSN:

2223-3822

Copyright owner:

Електронне наукове фахове видання «Соціально-економічні проблеми і держава»

URL for reference material:

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Content type:

Article

Appears in Collections:

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State", Vol.33, No.2

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